Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through PDF Download

Author: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475560311
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33

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Book Description
A long-standing conjecture in macroeconomics is that recent declines in exchange rate pass-through are in part due to improved monetary policy performance. In a large sample of emerging and advanced economies, we find evidence of a strong link between exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices and the monetary policy regime’s performance in delivering price stability. Using input-output tables, we decompose exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices into a component that reflects the adjustment of imported goods at the border, and another that captures the response of all other prices. We find that price stability and central bank credibility have reduced the second component.

Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030139328
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 416

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Book Description
This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.

Author: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475569211
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33

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Book Description
A long-standing conjecture in macroeconomics is that recent declines in exchange rate pass-through are in part due to improved monetary policy performance. In a large sample of emerging and advanced economies, we find evidence of a strong link between exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices and the monetary policy regime’s performance in delivering price stability. Using input-output tables, we decompose exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices into a component that reflects the adjustment of imported goods at the border, and another that captures the response of all other prices. We find that price stability and central bank credibility have reduced the second component.

Author: Alain N. Kabundi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484371674
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Book Description
This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades, which coincides with the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. The paper conjectures, in line with the literature, that this outcome is largely due to improved monetary policy credibility. To do this, it first documents the factors that explain monetary policy credibility. Using the standard deviation of individual inflation forecasts as a measure of monetary policy credibility, its shows that the latter is negatively affected by the level of inflation itself, monetary policy uncertainty, and a measure of the unobserved stochastic volatility of inflation. The second phase proceeds by analyzing the determinants of the pass-through using the monetary policy credibility index derived from the first phase. The paper confirms the remarkable achievement that, despite the many shocks that the economy has witnessed, the declining pass-through is indeed explained by the improving monetary policy credibility.

Author: Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498302777
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 13

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Book Description
Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.

Author: Elías Albagli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513547712
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description
Chile offers an example of a country that has overcome the fear of floating by reducing balance sheet mismatches, enhancing financial market development, as well as improving monetary, fiscal, and political institutions, and strengthening policy credibility. Under the floating regime, Chile’s economic adjustment to external shocks appears significantly improved, and its exchange rate pass-through has substantially declined. Our results reinforce the case that moving to a clear and credible floating regime can be associated with a reduction in the fear of floating via economic transformation (like smaller balance sheet mismatches, a larger hedging market, and a lower exchange rate pass-through).

Author: Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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Book Description
International oil producers have discovered commercially recoverable petroleum reserves of around 11 billion barrels that promise to transform Guyana's agricultural and mining economy into an oil powerhouse, while hopefully helping to diversify the non-oil economy. Oil production presents a momentous opportunity to boost inclusive growth and diversify the economy providing resources to address human development needs and infrastructure gaps. At the same time, it presents important policy challenges relating to effective and prudent management of the nation’s oil wealth. This study focusses on one of these challenges: the appropriate monetary policy and exchange rate framework for Guyana as it transitions to a major oil exporter.

Author: Andrew Berg
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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Book Description
We assess monetary regime options for Latin American countries. The costs of a common currency are likely to outweigh its benefits, as those countries face diverse economic shocks, do not trade much with each other, and are affected by common international financial shocks only to the same extent as the average pair of emerging markets. Unilateral dollarization would be desirable only for those countries where there are strong links to the U.S. economy, the credibility of the monetary authorities is irreversibly lost, and there is keen demand for dollar-denominated financial assets. Finally, some countries in the region seem to be good candidates for meaningful and useful floating.

Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: Nova Science Pub Incorporated
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 211

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Book Description
Over the past twenty years there has been a marked shift toward more flexible exchange rate regimes and more open capital accounts by both industrial and non-industrial economies. Two decades ago exchange rate pegs of various kinds accounted for over half of industrial country monetary policy regimes, but declined to just 5 percent of regimes by 2005, while in non-industrial countries the share fell from 75 percent to 55 percent. The move toward more flexibility in exchange rates has been accompanied by the adoption of a variety of frameworks to conduct monetary policy, ranging from inflation targeting, monetary targeting, and more eclectic approaches based on several targets. In industrial countries, exchange rate pegs and monetary targets have been replaced by regimes based on implicit or explicit inflation targets. In non-industrial countries, exchange rate pegs have also often been replaced by direct inflation targets, although many non-industrial countries still operate through somewhat eclectic regimes. This book is important read for understanding monetary policy under high capital mobility based on other countries' experiences.

Author: Guillermo A. Calvo
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262032360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 536

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Book Description
Guillermo Calvo, who foresaw the financial crisis that followed the devaluation of Mexico's peso, has spent much of his career thinking beyond the conventional wisdom. In a quiet and understated way, Calvo has made seminal contributions to several major research areas in macroeconomics, particularly monetary policy, exchange rates, public debt, and stabilization in Latin America and post-communist countries. Money, Exchange Rates, and Output brings together these contributions in a broad selection of the author's work over the past two decades. There are introductions to each section, and an introduction to the entire collection that outlines the connections throughout and surveys the current state of macroeconomic theory. Calvo, an advocate of the "Chicago school" of rational expectations, uses elements of this approach to understand economic development. While he is a top macroeconomics theorist, his models are always intertwined with policy discussion. He pushes readers to combine knowledge of real world facts—of institutions, traditions, and culture, in addition to statistics - with theory. One focus of this collection is on the role of credibility in policy-making. Calvo analyzes the origins and macroeconomic consequences of credibility problems. He also shows how monetary and trade theory can fail when the public does not fully believe in policy announcements. A second focus is on equilibrium multiplicity. Calvo uses models with multiple equilibria to identify factors that cause anomalous behavior. He discusses multiple equilibria in abstract terms as well as in terms of its relevance to understanding domestic public debt. Specific issues covered are predetermined exchange rates, currency substitution, domestic public debt and seigniorage, and stabilizing transition economies.